Flood Control District of Maricopa County ALERT System Current Air Parcel Attributes and Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Sat Dec 9 11:06:11 MST 2023 *** All QPF rainfall values are FORECAST ESTIMATES in the event that storms develop. They are not to be confused with observational rainfal values.*** Refer to the COMMENTS section below for information on how to use the different QPF Tables -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 1: MODEL (HRRR) BASED PARCEL ATTRIBUTES AND QPF -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Station Air Dewp. Wind Wind Parcel LCL LCL Warm | Non-Convect. QPF | Convect. QPF | QPF W/Mult. Maricopa County | Elev. Temp. Temp. dir. Spd. Sfc Pres Pres Temp. Layer MALR | 1hr. 30m. 10m. | 1hr. 30m. 10m. | 1hr. 30m. 10m. | (ft) (F) (F) (kts) (mb) (mb) (C) (Km) (C/Km) | (in) (in) (in) | (in) (in) (in) | (in) (in) (in) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 500mb Elevatd Storm ****** 13.0 **** NW 42.7 519.2 384.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 700mb Elevatd Storm ****** 37.5 **** NNW 24.0 717.7 412.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 850mb Elevatd Storm ****** 45.6 **** NE 20.9 864.0 521.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Surface based Storm ****** 58.5 6.7 ESE 7.6 980.7 631.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 2: MSP FORECAST ZONE AVERAGED SURFACE BASED QPF -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Air Dewp. | Non-Convect. QPF | Convect. QPF | QPF W/Mult. | Antecedent Rainfall | Flash Flood Potential MSP Forecast Zone | Temp. Temp. | 1hr. 30m. 10m. | 1hr. 30m. 10m. | 1hr. 30m. 10m. | 3hr. 1day 2day 3day | | (F) (F) | (in) (in) (in) | (in) (in) (in) | (in) (in) (in) | (in) (in) (in) (in) | FFP Index Value -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- East Valley 60.6 12.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Gila Bend 60.3 17.7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Gila River 60.4 24.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Lower Salt River Lakes 58.1 21.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None New River/Cave Creek 49.8 10.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Northwest Valley 61.0 6.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Palo Verde 59.7 11.9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Phoenix North 59.0 13.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Phoenix South 59.4 15.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Rainbow Valley 60.2 26.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Scottsdale North 56.0 10.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Scottsdale South 60.2 14.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Southeast Valley 60.4 24.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Superstition 58.1 21.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Upper Centennial 58.2 9.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None West Valley 59.9 12.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Wickenburg 56.3 4.4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 None Westcentral *No Zone* 59.2 5.7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 *** ******** Far N Cntrl *No Zone* 36.8 1.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 *** ******** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 3: SURFACE BASED PARCEL ATTRIBUTES AND QPF -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Station Air Dewp. Wind Wind Parcel LCL LCL Warm | Non-Convect. QPF | Convect. QPF | QPF W/Mult. Weather Station | Elev. Temp. Temp. dir. Gust Sfc Pres Pres Temp. Layer MALR | 1hr. 30m. 10m. | 1hr. 30m. 10m. | 1hr. 30m. 10m. Name | (ft) (F) (F) (mph) (mb) (mb) (C) (Km) (C/Km) | (in) (in) (in) | (in) (in) (in) | (in) (in) (in) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Aguila VFD 2170.0 58.2 9.2 NNW 13.5 940.0 619.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Bartlett Lake 1780.0 57.7 12.1 NNW 6.4 959.1 651.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Belmont Mountains 1805.0 60.0 8.8 WNW 7.1 949.0 614.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Buckeye FRS 1075.0 60.3 15.1 W 8.1 988.0 674.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Camelback@Loop 303 1115.0 58.4 14.6 NNE 12.7 972.0 670.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Carefree 2960.0 53.7 10.1 ESE 11.4 909.0 626.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 City of Glendale 1150.0 61.6 14.1 ENE 10.3 ***** ***** 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Crossroads Park 1270.0 62.1 13.0 WSW 5.9 979.0 646.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Desert Mtn. School 1810.0 56.0 12.8 N 15.7 957.3 663.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Durango Complex 1050.0 61.9 18.3 E 5.2 988.8 684.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Eloy 1510.0 ***** **** *** ***** 960.0 960.0 **** *** 0.9 **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** EMF @ AZ Ave. 1215.0 59.4 22.5 ENE 7.3 968.0 709.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Estrella Fan 1455.0 59.0 26.9 N 11.3 973.7 742.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Fountain Hills 1665.0 58.3 12.1 *** 0.0 955.0 645.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 G&F Woosley Peak 1985.0 61.3 14.7 *** 0.0 943.0 636.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Gateway C.C. 1145.0 61.7 17.2 *** 0.0 972.0 667.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Gila Bend Landfill 750.0 59.3 10.0 NE 17.2 986.0 649.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Gila Bend Mountians 1560.0 57.6 6.0 N 18.1 968.8 624.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Horseshoe Lake 2085.0 56.4 21.9 N 16.3 950.8 709.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Horsethief Basin 6705.0 37.7 10.6 NW 14.0 795.8 629.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Humboldt Mtn. 5205.0 43.8 11.8 *** 0.0 837.0 635.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Jefferson Park 1400.0 61.2 0.0 NE 12.6 964.0 572.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Jomax Rd @ 70th St 2180.0 57.7 11.8 N 6.0 947.6 641.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Kleinman Park 1220.0 59.7 14.5 E 12.2 968.0 660.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lake Pleasant 1815.0 57.1 13.9 NNE 17.9 957.5 663.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lake Pleasant North 1750.0 56.6 14.0 NE 23.2 963.2 670.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Magma FRS 1605.0 60.8 22.7 ENE 2.6 956.0 693.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 McMicken Dam 1350.0 61.0 6.3 NE 16.0 975.6 613.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mobile 1340.0 61.4 25.4 NNW 14.2 977.9 722.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mount Union 7495.0 35.9 -8.0 *** 0.0 767.0 521.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Osborn@64th St. 1255.0 60.2 14.5 NNE 4.3 968.0 657.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Phoenix Dam 2b 1425.0 59.4 13.0 NW 11.0 976.9 659.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rackensack Canyon 4475.0 45.7 6.3 W 8.0 866.7 617.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Saguaro Lake 1550.0 58.7 27.4 E 12.5 974.8 748.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 San Tan Valley 1525.0 ***** **** *** ***** 952.0 952.0 **** *** 0.9 **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** **** South Mtn. Fan 1270.0 59.7 13.3 NE 5.0 980.2 661.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 South Mtn. Park 2350.0 52.1 12.2 N 11.3 939.1 667.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sycamore Creek 5825.0 36.9 4.8 N 0.0 820.0 620.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Thompson Peak 3995.0 54.4 6.5 *** 0.0 871.0 578.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Tiger Wash Fan 1605.0 58.5 2.6 NNE 9.6 966.8 600.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Usery Park 2065.0 57.5 15.2 WSW 13.1 953.5 666.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Wickenburg 2385.0 56.3 4.4 NNE 4.6 942.3 605.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TABLE 4: CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES AND INDICES (HRRR MODEL) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Precipitable Water (inches) = 0.14 : Total atmospheric column water, GPS based from SUOMINET at San Tan Location, updated hourly Precip Water Trend (inches) = 0.00 : 1-hour trend, positive value means moistening, negative value means drying PW Time Stamp (Julian Day) =******** : GPS based from SUOMINET at San Tan Location, if *** GPS site is down, using hourly HRRR dat 850mb Dewpoint Temp (C) = -24.72 : mid-level moisture content 700mb Dewpoint Temp (C) = -31.78 : mid-level moisture content CAPE (J/Kg) = 0.00 : Surface based CAPE value, measures convective instability CIN (J/kg) = 0.00 : Surface based CIN value, measures convective inhibition W-Max (m/s) = 0.00 : Maximum convective t-storm updraft speed, to convert to mph multiply W-Max by 2.0 Lifted Index = 21.38 : >2 no convection, 2-0 showers & iso. t-storms, 0-(-2) t-storms probable, <-2 severe storms Showalter Index = 19.62 : >3 no convection, 3-1 showers & iso. t-storms, 1-(-2) t-storms probable, <-2 severe storms K-Index = -41.05 : <15 0%, 15-20 <20%, 21-25 20-40%, 26-30 40-60%, 31-35 60-80%, 36-40 80-90%, >40 >90% SWEAT Index = 83.28 : <300 non-severe t-storms, 300-400 severe t-storms possible, >400 severe t-storms probable Total Totals (CT+VT) = 6.27 : 44-47 light to mod., 48-51 mod. & few heavy, 52-55 heavy & few severe, >55 numerous heavy Convective Scaling Factor = 1500.00 : Used in rainfall alogrithms to calculate different QPF values -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMMENTS SECTION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF) TYPES: 1. Non-Convective QPF - typically used during the Spring and Fall (pre and post monsoon onset). QPF values are for non-convective rain events e.g. little to no instability, dynamically driven and/or tropical systems, weak to moderate moist-adiabatic processes, etc. 2. Convective QPF - typically used during the monsoon season. QPF values are for convective rain events ex. moderte/high instability, strong frontogenitic forcing, etc. During the non-monsoon season the algorithm is adjusted for typical Spring and Fall convective events. 3. Convective QPF with applied Muliplier - same as Convective QPF, but values are doubled due to local mesocale enhancements (i.e. storm training, orographic enhancement/strong upslope, stationary storms, detected mesocyclone, etc). These values are rarely used outside of unique meteorological events. An expert level of meteorological understanding is needed to correctly interpret these values. All QPFs are calculated using empirically driven algorithms including parcel theory, total column precipitable water, warm layer depth, WC/CC Theory, temperature/dewpoint observational data, etc. Values are the most accurate in the near-storm environment (<1-2hrs. from the onset of storms). Surface based QPF values (i.e. Tables 2 and 3) will become ARTIFICIALLY INFLATED as rain-cooled temperature and dewpoint data is ingested into the QPF alogrithms. When this occurs use model based QPF values from Table 1 for better estimates. TABLES: Tab1e 1 - Air parcel attributes are calculated using RAP model data for KPHX. QPF values in this table are best used for elevated convective events with little to no boundary layer interaction with the storm updrafts i.e. elevated mountain convection, elevated desert convection, etc. Table 2 - Temperature, Dewpoint, and QPF values are generated at various weather stations within that Forecast Zone. They are then interpolated and are assigned as a Forecast Zone avreaged value. The final three columns of Table 3, under the title "Antecedent Rainfall", display 3hr, 1, 2, & 3 day Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) observational values for each Forecast Zone. Table 3 - Surface based air parcel attributes are calculated for each station location. QPF values in this table are best used for surface based convective events with forced boundary layer interaction with storm updrafts. TABLE 4 - Thermodynamic variables and indices are calculated from latest (hourly) HRRR model data for KPHX. These values are useful for determining which type of QPF value to use and from which table. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please direct all questions or comments concerning the data above to: Daniel.Henz@maricopa.gov --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------